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Well, it looks like Heinz (NYSE: HNZ) put me and my earnings preview to shame. The company delivered a great second quarter. The company, whose colleagues include Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Kellogg (NYSE: K), and Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB), grew its bottom line by over 22% on a per-share basis. Heinz scored $0.87 per diluted share in profit, enough to wallop the analyst community's estimate of $0.76 per share.

Heinz made sure to hedge itself in terms of currency effects. That helped drive the quarter. The company's strong brand portfolio delivered, on an overall basis, almost 6% in organic sales growth. Management was able to leverage the equity of its product line to enact favorable pricing measures. And one of my favorite parts of an earnings report is the statement of cash flows. Cash from operations rose almost 10%, and operating free cash flow by the company's calculation (Heinz adds back disposals of capital property/equipment) increased almost 9%. It would, of course, be nice to see the growth rate of cash flow be closer to the growth rate of earnings, but at least cash generation is trending upward.

Gotta tell you, though, it looks like the market could care less about Heinz and its nifty numbers. As I write this, the stock is down 0.8%. I would have figured on a little more excitement considering that today was something of a calm day in the markets at large. Apparently Wall Street doesn't feel a lot of confidence concerning Heinz and its ability to keep up the good work. All I can say is that no stock should be considered defensive, even Heinz. We're playing by a different rule book, one that was written by a crazy lunatic. It seems like every stock is a gamble. If you have extreme patience and can tie up money for a long, long time, Heinz is not a bad bet at its current dividend yield. Otherwise, you may want to hoard cash.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Dell (NASDAQ: DELL), whose tech colleagues include Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), had a pretty decent third quarter. The bottom line came in at $0.37 per diluted share. That represented a growth rate of 9%, and it handily beat analyst expectations of $0.31 per share according to Thomson Reuters. I give Dell credit for the significant beat.

However, it should be noted that the bottom line was driven in part by share repurchases. There's nothing necessarily wrong with that, but it does put the big earnings beat in perspective. Indeed, on a dollar basis, profits decreased about 6%. Still, operating income rose 22% on a year-over-year basis.

But then there's the statement of cash flows. Cash was used for operations in the third quarter, a reported $86 million. Last year at this time, Dell generated $998 million from operating activities. That's something to at least think about. In fact, the press release said that slowing demand helped to worsen the cash conversion cycle. Now, I won't crucify Dell on this one cash-flow statement, because the company should still deliver a lot of the green stuff on an annual basis. But even the nine-month statement shows a decline in cash from operations. Again, it's something an investor must consider, and it puts that earnings beat in perspective.

Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS), a bookseller that competes with Borders Group (NYSE: BGP), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), and retailers that stock books such as Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), did not do well during the third quarter. Total sales decreased over 4%. A GAAP loss of $0.34 per share was reported versus a GAAP profit of $0.07 per share in the year-ago period. On an adjusted basis, the loss of $0.21 per share missed the call by $0.05, according to this source.

Okay, is it me, or do these numbers basically broadcast loud and clear that Barnes & Noble is not worth one penny of your investment capital? Besides the above, same-store sales took a big dive of 7.4%. That should be the last nail in the coffin of the current Barnes & Noble story, one that reads like a Stephen King novel. Actually, though, it isn't. Another nail to add would be the fact that guidance has been adjusted lower by management. Now, according to CEO Steve Riggio, gross margins are doing okay. I'll skip that chapter, though, as there isn't much substance to it. Who cares about the gross margin at this point. With traffic down and probably due to get worse, a positive tale of the gross margin isn't going to make me want to buy Barnes & Noble as a value play.

GameStop (NYSE: GME) didn't have a great third quarter. Total sales increased by slightly higher than 5%. On a GAAP basis, earnings dropped three pennies to $0.28 per share. If you exclude items such as debt extinguishment and foreign currency effects, then adjusted earnings per share on a diluted basis increased 19% to $0.38.

The bottom line may have increased by double digits by GameStop's calculation, but there are a couple reasons not to be too impressed by the performance. First, management missed the analyst's call by three pennies (this particular source is using $0.34 as an adjusted number, and comparing it to the expectation of $0.37). Second, and of higher importance to me, same-store sales decreased 1.8% during the quarter.

Now, it is true that the video-game retailer was cycling off a dramatic 46.3% increase in comps in the year-ago period, an expansion that was driven by Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) incredible Halo 3 phenomenon. I realize it was a difficult comparison. But there's no way that an investor can't be disappointed by that figure. The difference between positive 46.3% and negative 1.8% is rather sizable; I think management should have tried a little harder to deliver a number on the positive side of things at the very least.

Heinz (NYSE: HNZ), whose supermarket colleagues include Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Kellogg (NYSE: K), General Mills (NYSE: GIS), and Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB), will be reporting second-quarter numbers on Friday, November 21. According to AOL Finance, the call is for approximately $0.76 in terms of earnings per share. That would represent about 7% of bottom-line growth. That wouldn't be too bad in this market.

Whether or not Heinz can beat the estimates, it's hard to say. My opinion? I wouldn't be betting on such an outcome. If I were a shareholder of the ketchup company, I would just hope that management at least meets expectations. I doubt that anything in the report will make me say that Heinz is now a perfect defensive stock. Literally nothing is defensive; best thing you can do in this market is hedge yourself by shorting some of it via an instrument like the ProShares Ultrashort (NYSE: DXD) ETF.

Heinz wasn't too far off from its 52-week low at the close on Wednesday. Considering that consumer-products companies may have a tough time competing with generic brands on price points, it's going to be difficult to see how the outlook for Heinz will be anything but cautious at best. Investors will be tracking the changes in volumes and how currency affects profits. And then there's the gross margin. With energy prices down, that should in theory help the metric, or at least I imagine that would be the case.

Well, I've finally done it. I sold my entire position of Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL). It wasn't an easy decision.

When I covered Marvel's latest earnings report, I alluded to the issue of emotion. My emotion, to be specific. I stated that it most likely would be in my best interest to get out of the stock since there really weren't many catalysts coming up in 2009 to propel the stock higher.

In fact, it would be easy to make the argument that, since the market has been so haywire and irrational, one must take profits when one has a profit to indeed take. Marvel is just such a stock in my portfolio. I have several paper losses, but Marvel retains its green status on my board. I love the company's story on a long-term basis, absolutely adore it, but I think it is incumbent upon every trade and investor to build a cash stash that can be used for opportunities the market may throw their way.

The Marvel position that I liquidated on Tuesday was one I owned for quite a while. It had a nice profit attached to it. I feel good about preserving that capital, especially since Marvel is lower today (at least, it's lower as I write this; as we all know, that could change in a heartbeat).

We all know that this Christmas is going to be particularly tough on retailers. Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Target (NYSE: TGT), Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD), and Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), as well as hipper competitors Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) and Gap (NYSE: GPS), will be fighting it out at the mall Mad-Max style the next several weeks.

It's not going to be pretty. With comps and cash flows on the line, these chains will be looking to extract as much discretionary money from consumer wallets as is heavenly possible. But there's a troubling sign with respect to a popular gift option this year.

Gift cards have been soaring in popularity over the years. Not only do they make great presents, but retailers love them because they represent a little insurance policy: if the Christmas quarter isn't as strong as a retailer would like, then redemption of gift cards will theoretically help the bottom line in the next quarter. The card purchases do not get recorded as a sale until they are redeemed. So it's like a squirrel putting food away for the long, cold winter.

Unfortunately, we have some bad news on this front: gift-card sales are expected to be down 6% this season. That's not what retail investors want to hear. It's just another reason for traders to short this sector.

Well, seems like Lowe's Companies, Ic. (NYSE: LOW) did much better than expected during the third quarter. And I was apparently too pessimistic in my earnings preview. The call was for $0.28 per share. The home-improvement retailer beat expectations by $0.05 per share, according to Thomson Reuters estimates. Hey, I tip my hat to management.

But I wouldn't buy the stock just now (unless, of course, you have a very long-term horizon, are willing to ride out the bear market, and intend on improving your cost basis through dollar-cost-averaging). My reasoning is simple: total sales increased only 1.4%, and same-store sales decreased nearly 6%. It's that bad drop in the comps that really has me worried. All retailers are suffering through lousy comps right now, and I think sales are destined to remain weak.

Yet, the market seems to be saying something else to me. Lowe's saw its shares rise over 4% on Monday, on good volume, and on a bad day for the major indexes, too. Is the market saying that all the bad news is priced in? You know, I understand the earnings game and how the market loves it when a business beats estimates, and certainly a $0.05 beat is cool, but I'm not sure that better prices are ahead for those who follow Lowe's and its stock. Consumers just won't be spending enough to justify the buying seen in Lowe's equity yesterday.

Hasbro (NYSE: HAS) management recently spoke to analysts at its Investor Day conference. Here's the transcript. We all know the deal about these conferences: companies want to put their best foot forward and convince Wall Street that, if things are going good they are about to get even better, or, if things are going bad they won't be as bad as people thought and they will be improving either soon or on a long-term basis. You can bet that it was the latter tone taken by Team Hasbro at the event. In fact, CEO Brian Goldner said something which I thought was quite amazing: did you know that there actually will be a Christmas this year?

Frankly, I had my doubts. Of course, even though there will be a Christmas, and even though Santa will be delivering a lot of toys to kids this holiday season, it's not going to be a pleasant one for toy manufacturers. We're in a bad recession, folks, which is about to wreak psychological havoc on even the strongest consumer mind. Hasbro wants investors to know that parents will buy the stuff on their children's lists. Hasbro is further betting that the company's products will be on a lot of those lists.

The brand equity inherent in its portfolio was mentioned as a particular strength, one that will help keep margins strong and defend the company against competition not only from the likes of Mattel (NYSE: MAT) and JAKKS Pacific (NASDAQ: JAKK) but also from companies that put out more generic playthings. Management also mentioned that Hasbro is in a position of financial strength because of its cash flow, and that it remains confident that revenue expansion can go beyond increases in costs and expenses.

Target (NYSE: TGT), arch competitor of Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Sears Holdings (NASDAQ: SHLD), and Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), reported earnings for the third quarter on Monday. According to my earnings preview, the call was for $0.49 per share. On that basis, Target met the expectations of analysts. But I've read some other headlines that said that estimates were beat. Apparently some of us are working off different data. No matter; it was a dismal quarter no matter how you slice it.

According to the press release, net sales advanced a mere 1.7%. Worse, same-store sales dropped over 3%. That's the important figure to consider when talking about retail. Target did okay in terms of cash from operations, but that doesn't mean that things will be great going forward. Not at all. In fact, although management produced a gain in operational cash flow, all of it -- and more -- was taken up by capital expenditures. This issue of cash is actually the big angle of the story for me. Management states in the release that it has stopped share-buyback activity and that it intends to be conservative concerning capital spending. It literally mentioned that its business is not necessarily attractive to invest in at the moment.

If that's the case, should you buy the stock now? I'd say you better think long and hard before buying Target at its current price level. As I write this, the stock is down about 2.5%. It isn't at the 52-week low, but I don't see how it won't go back there, and beyond, before the year is out. Is Target most likely a good long-term play? I'd say the company is. But it's difficult to look at this report and say that now is the time to buy, even for long-term thinkers. Sales are down, the company's credit-card business isn't scoring any points, and the outlook is not favorable. I guess I'm in a bearish mood when it comes to the bullseye retailer...

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

I think we all knew which film would come out on top this past weekend. Sony's (NYSE: SNE) new James Bond adventure, Quantum of Solace, grossed an estimated $70 million at domestic theaters over the last three days according to Boxofficemojo. Excellent showing, Jimbo. As far as I'm concerned, though, I think you have to give the number-two film even more credit.

DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) and its distributor, Viacom (NYSE: VIA), need to be given major kudos for their work on Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa. The first Madagascar took in about $193 million in total at the domestic box office back in 2005. It was released during the summertime. The sequel is definitely going to hit $200 million. This past weekend it took in roughly $36 million, and its total stands at approximately $118 million. With the Thanksgiving holiday still to come, I figure there will be plenty of business for DreamWorks Animation's cartoon.

The wild card here is Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Bolt project. That one will do well, judging by the commercials I've seen so far. How much thunder will it steal from the second Madagascar when it is released this Friday? A lot, I think. Still, I'll keep to my $200 million prediction. I believe there will be enough discretionary dollars left for both cartoons.

Lowe's (NYSE: LOW), a chain that sells products related to home improvement for do-it-yourselfers and competes with Home Depot (NYSE: HD), is set to report earnings for the third quarter on Monday, November 17. The expectation is for $0.28 per share. If management hits that number, which its shareholders are praying it does at the very least, then that would represent a 35% drop in per-share income. At this point, investors are becoming numb to things like 35% drops in per-share income, aren't they? Ah, the wonders of a bear market.

Lowe's beat in the previous two quarters according to AOL Finance, but all bets are currently off as far as I'm concerned. Retail is awful, consumer confidence just felt the poke of the Grim Reaper's index finger and is dying a slow death, and I'd have to assume that people haven't done much to improve their homes during the past quarter. With all the headlines talking about job losses and the like, putting up new cabinets in the kitchen is probably far down on the consumer's list of priorities. The actual numbers for the quarter won't matter so much. Even if Lowe's beats by a penny, it's the outlook Wall Street will be dissecting. And that won't be good, will it? Everyone's outlook is cautious at the very best. At the very least, management will be doing what it can in terms of preserving the margins. I'm sure there will be talk about cost-cutting and efficiencies during the conference call. Let me tell you, management is going to need a lot of efficiency initiatives going forward in this cataclysmic climate. And I hope they have their cash-flow statement working at an optimum level.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF), the hip clothing store that competes with The Gap, Inc. (NYSE: GPS) and J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (NYSE: JCP), is no different than any other retailer. Christmas is going to hurt... hurt bad. Make no mistake. And as far as earnings reports goes, the pattern is in: report a decline, then issue some nasty guidance.

Abercrombie reported Q3 numbers today, and according to the press release, net sales decreased 8%, and earnings per diluted share declined 44% to $0.72. As Melly Alazraki reported this morning, that $0.72 beat analyst estimates. But the market could care less. As Melly pointed out, the full-year outlook was cut. The stock sold off upon the news. In fact, as I write this, the stock is down nearly 15%. By the way, if by the time this is published the market is up and Abercrombie's shares are trading in the green (big if, granted), don't even think it's a buy. Put that out of your mind. Did you see the same-store sales? They were down 14% for the quarter. That figure is grabbing the attention of investors, I'm sure. When you see a downturn like that, well, you know things aren't going to turn around quickly.

Abercrombie's woes will be with it for a while. Management will find it difficult to strike the right balance between staffing the stores properly and increasing marketing activities. All retailers will be in the same boat. The stock hit a new 52-week low today of $18.83. My guess is that the stock will be as volatile as the market, and that it will trend in a downward direction over the next couple months. Obviously I don't think it's a buy. Broken stock and broken fundamentals aren't a great combo. Abercrombie continues to plan for new store openings in fiscal 2008; perhaps those investments will pay off down the line. For now, the retail sector is doing horribly, competition in the sector is becoming cutthroat as consumer confidence loses value, and I continue to look at only two names -- Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and Target (NYSE: TGT) -- as possible long-term values. Yep, Abercrombie & Fitch isn't so sexy anymore.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

The month of October was good to the Nintendo (OTC BB: NTDOY) Wii console. Actually, every month seems to be good to the Wii console. According to the latest sales figures, the Wii sold over 800,000 units during the Halloween season. Nothing scary about that.

Of course, Sony (NYSE: SNE) probably was a little spooked. The company's PlayStation 3 system came in a distant third to the Wii. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) probably felt all right. The Xbox 360 came in second place, fueled by a recent price cut. Believe it or not, you can actually get a video game system for less money than it costs to acquire a Wii. The Xbox 360 version without a hard drive goes for $199. Still, people are willing to pay a premium for casual gaming.

After I got through checking out the hardware sales, I wanted to see how software had performed last month over at Gamespot. I have to admit, I was pretty shocked to learn of the "conspicuously absent" Guitar Hero World Tour game. That bugged me because one of the prime reasons I own shares of Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI) is the Guitar Hero franchise. However, one thing to keep in mind is that the title still has time to chart. It was released the last week of October, so perhaps the November rankings will be kind to it. Also, the new Call of Duty war adventure hit the street this week. Anecdotally, I know there's a lot of interest in that game.

Kohl's Corp (NYSE: KSS) reported Q3 earnings on Thursday after the bell. I didn't like what I saw. I couldn't find anything in there that would make me think the stock is a buy at this time. Well, there were a couple good points, but they didn't sway me.

Net revenues were pretty much flat at $3.8 billion. The bottom line came in at $0.52 per diluted share. Last year at this time, Kohl's delivered $0.61 per diluted share in net income. That's a 15% drop, and that isn't good, even if earnings beat expectations by a penny.

So, we got a flat top line and a declining bottom line. Want some more bad news? This is probably the worst metric: same-store sales decreased well over 6% for the quarter. Plus, they declined 6% for the nine-month period. As can be seen, things are getting worse for Kohl's. Same-store sales are indeed a key measure of a retailer's strength, so even though management did well in terms of gross margin and operational cash flow (the latter took a big jump, moving up 175% due to changes in working capital relating to inventories), I can't find it within me to be even remotely bullish on this business.